Stay updated with ICE’s latest Freight & Trade Briefing — covering MSC’s upgraded Oceania services, Victoria’s new tolls and truck bans, rising terminal fees nationwide, tightened khapra biosecurity rules, global rate movements, US–Australia tariff changes, shifting Middle East security risks, and early signs of global vessel oversupply heading into 2026.

OCEANIA

Two major upgrades for the Australian trade lane

MSC’s revamped Koala service now offers a fixed weekly connection between Shanghai, Hong Kong, Jakarta and the Australian ports of Fremantle, Adelaide and Melbourne, providing a 35-day loop that reduces transshipment and gives shippers a more predictable Asian gateway. At the same time, the MSC/CMA NEMO service is adding an 18th vessel, including the 9,176 TEU MSC Lisbon, increasing deadweight capacity and helping stabilise transit times on the Australia–Europe corridor despite ongoing Cape of Good Hope diversions.

VIC: Major Transport and Cost Changes Ahead

Victoria has announced several major changes that will directly impact transport costs and delivery planning for importers and exporters. From 14 December, new heavy-vehicle tolls will apply across the West Gate Tunnel and upgraded M1 corridor, covering all routes east of Millers Road. Whether trucks use the new tunnel, West Gate Bridge, or the Hyde Street ramps, operators will face higher charges once pricing is confirmed by Transurban. With industry bodies already forecasting increased congestion and a lift in transport costs, businesses moving freight through Melbourne should prepare for price adjustments and potential scheduling delays.

The Victorian Government has also introduced night-time and weekend truck bans on Williamstown Road, creating a No-Truck Zone from 8pm to 6am on weekdays and across weekends. The restriction covers the corridor between Geelong Street (Seddon) and the West Gate Freeway (Yarraville) and will apply permanently. Industry groups warn that the ban highlights long-standing gaps in freight network planning, pushing more trucks onto already stressed arterials and increasing pressure on compliant routes accessing the Port of Melbourne. Operators are now reviewing alternate pathways, which may cause longer transit windows for pick-ups and deliveries in the inner-west.

Higher container terminal fees across Australia

Flinders Adelaide Container Terminal, VICT, Patrick Terminals and DP World have each released updated fee schedules outlining higher landside and ancillary fees, with changes covering items such as container terminal access, infrastructure levies, VBS fees and other landside services. These increases, expected to take effect from 1 January 2026, will affect transport operators and importers nationally, so we recommend reviewing upcoming shipments and budgeting for higher terminal-related costs.

Biosecurity rules around khapra beetle have just stepped up again

DAFF has ended the transitional period that allowed some flexibility in phytosanitary documentation for high risk plant products, with all consignments that had not cleared the border by 12 November now required to fully meet the updated treatment and certification requirements. Importers of seeds, grain and certain packaged foods into Australia should assume zero tolerance for non-compliant paperwork and expect potential holds if supplier documentation is not exactly in line with the new standard.

RBA Holds Rates; Inflation Stays Stubborn

The Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 3.6% this month and signalled that core inflation is likely to sit above its 2 to 3% target band well into 2026. That means borrowing costs for inventory and capital investments are likely to stay where they are for a while, so importers and exporters should keep stress testing working capital and FX budgets against a higher-for-longer rate environment.

Slowing Growth Among Key Trading Partners

The RBA’s November Statement on Monetary Policy and other economic commentary point to slower growth in Australia’s major trading partners over the next year as tariffs, policy uncertainty and higher interest rates bite. At the same time, bulk commodity prices have firmed a little, supporting export revenues even as manufactured trade faces more friction. This combination suggests exporters of resources may remain relatively insulated, while importers of consumer and capital goods need to stay agile on pricing and inventory decisions.

AMERICAS

US Reverses Food Tariffs on Australia

Australia and the United States have hit a friendlier patch on trade, with President Trump reversing his food and agriculture tariffs, including duties on Australian beef and several other grocery items. This removes an extra cost layer for US importers and should support steady demand for Australian meat exports into fast food and retail channels, even though higher tariffs still apply to steel and aluminium and broader US protectionism has not gone away.

ASIA & MIDDLE EAST

Singapore Introduces New Green Flight Levy

Singapore has announced a passenger green levy on all flights departing from Changi from October 2026, with charges applied on tickets sold from April 2026. For economy passengers heading to Australia the fee will be modest per ticket, but it is tied to sustainable aviation fuel uptake and will ultimately filter through airline cost bases, including the value they place on bellyhold freight capacity on Australia routes.

Red Sea Security Improves but Risks Remain

Yemen’s Houthi movement has publicly signalled that it has paused attacks on commercial shipping and Israeli targets following the Gaza ceasefire, and several weeks have passed without new incidents. Marine insurers and security analysts are cautiously optimistic but stress that the group retains both capability and intent to resume if the conflict reignites, so the security risk has eased but not disappeared. Carriers are starting to weigh a gradual return to Suez routings, which would free up capacity tied up around the Cape of Good Hope and could eventually soften some long-haul rate pressures if the calm holds. Despite that pause, Hapag Lloyd and other major carriers have said they are not ready yet to resume routine transits via Suez until they see a more durable security picture.

Iran Seizes Tanker in Strait of Hormuz

Adding to geopolitical risk, Iran has seized a fuel tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, reviving memories of earlier tanker detentions and mine attacks in the region. The waterway is critical to global oil flows, so any sustained increase in tension tends to push up war risk insurance premiums and bunker fuel prices. If that escalates, shippers could see higher bunker adjustment factors creep back into ocean freight quotes in the months ahead.

GLOBAL

Global Spot Rates Firming Again

Xeneta data shows average spot rates from the Far East to the US and Europe have stabilised or edged up, with key lanes holding above USD 2,200 to 2,800 per 40 foot equivalent. Capacity has increased on these routes as carriers rebalance fleets, and any renewed firmness could divert vessels away from Oceania if local demand softens.

Capacity oversupply will worsen through 2026–27

A large wave of new container ships is being delivered faster than global cargo demand is growing, meaning there will be more vessel space than the market needs. The last time this happened in 2016, carriers cut rates aggressively to fill ships, creating a “rate war” and major schedule instability. Even if carriers try to offset the imbalance through slow-steaming, scrapping older vessels or adjusting services, Australian shippers should still expect more unpredictable freight rates and transit times over the next 18 months.

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