Stay ahead with ICE’s October Freight & Trade Update — covering Australia’s new UAE trade deal, major infrastructure shifts like Melbourne’s West Gate Tunnel tolls, Asia-Pacific route expansions, port strikes in Europe, and global shipping overcapacity forecasts.

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OCEANIA

New Australia-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement

The CEPA entered into force on 1 October 2025. Eligible UAE-originating goods will benefit from preferential rates of customs duty under the agreement. Most goods will enter duty free, while excise-equivalent goods will continue to align with existing tariff structures. Guidance on determining originating goods and applicable duty rates is available here.

Extra Vessel Added to Strengthen Europe–Australia Reliability

To significantly improve schedule reliability on the MSC Australian Express Service/CMA CGM NEMO between Europe and Australia, an eighteenth ship is being added to the fleet. This move is necessary because the weekly service, which has been forced to sail the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope due to Red Sea disruption, has been battling delays and port omissions; the additional vessel, which will phase in at London Gateway on October 15, offers slightly higher capacity and much greater deadweight, making it well-suited for Australian exports.

New West Gate Tunnel Project in Melbourne: No Longer Toll-Free For Trucks

When the West Gate Tunnel Project opens at the end of this year, heavy commercial vehicles will incur tolls on the upgraded West Gate Freeway, regardless of whether they use the tunnel, the Hyde Street ramps, or continue along the freeway over the West Gate Bridge  — i.e. even if you do not enter the tunnel, tolls will still apply. The toll point is located between Williamstown Road and Millers Road, and this charge will cover use of the freeway, the tunnel and related city connections. Light vehicles, motorcycles and light commercial vehicles will still have the option of using the West Gate Bridge and upgraded freeway toll-free (except when accessing the tunnel or ramps). This is a significant shift, as sections of the West Gate Freeway that were previously toll-free for trucks will no longer provide a cost-free option. Users should prepare for the flow-on effects to operating costs, route planning and pricing models.

• Current published tolls for heavy vehicles are $19.78 (daytime) and $13.19 (overnight) per trip, with long heavy vehicles charged $29.67 (daytime) and $19.78 (overnight). Multi-trip discounts will apply: after the fourth trip in a day, vehicles receive a 50% discount, and after the ninth trip no further tolls are charged for that day.

Leading Causes of Major Truck Crashes Identified in New Report

NTARC’s latest report indicates that while the rate of crashes due to inattention/distraction and inappropriate speed has decreased, these factors, along with inadequate following distance, remain the primary human-factor causes of major heavy vehicle incidents. The report also notes that heavy vehicles were not at fault in 85.7% of fatal truck and car crashes. While the industry works on reducing incidents, it’s also important to safeguard your shipments. ICE offers marine insurance for cargo protection against damage and unforeseen risks.

Queensland long-range pipeline

Port of Brisbane’s Vision 2060 highlights plans to triple container trade and expand channel capacity with an 18-month environmental assessment. Near-term impact is limited, but long-haul planning for SEQ exporters should track corridor upgrades and intermodal integration.

WA’s $91M Clinker Circuit Boosts Kwinana Port Capacity, in WA

Fremantle Ports has officially launched the $91.2 million clinker import circuit at the Kwinana Bulk Terminal, Western Australia’s sole import hub for the essential cement raw material. This major State-funded infrastructure investment, the largest in over a decade for the port, is set to boost WA’s economic future by improving efficiency and environmental management. The new circuit features a dedicated conveyor for direct, uninterrupted transfer of product to Cockburn Cement and includes a first-of-its-kind, 40-metre-high storage dome that quadruples previous capacity to 40,000 tonnes, significantly reducing port congestion and dust emissions.

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ASIA & MIDDLE EAST

China has tightened regulations around dual-use cargo

As of October 2025, goods that could have both civilian and military applications are now facing increased scrutiny at Chinese customs. This includes electronics, telecom parts, automotive components, and aerospace materials. Reports are of extended inspection times, and a higher risk of held or rejected cargo at origin, especially for high-tech or industrial cargo. Ensure your suppliers are familiar with the new regime and all goods are correctly classified and supported by accurate paperwork. Flag sensitive or dual-use goods early with your customs broker.

Carriers Expand Services to Tap Growing China‑Southeast Asia Trade

Freight carriers are ramping up services in response to escalating trade flows between China and Southeast Asia. For instance, Evergreen, Wan Hai, and Yang Ming have launched a new North China–Indonesia route from 31 October 2025, linking ports such as Dalian, Jakarta, Singapore, Kaohsiung and Port Klang. This joint service positions the route to better accommodate the shifting trade patterns. Meanwhile, major lines like Hapag‑Lloyd and CMA CGM are also boosting their intra‑Asia presence with new feeders—such as a Vietnam–Cambodia–China (VCS) service—and additional port calls, aligning with the broader Gemini cooperation strategy. Their goal: strengthen coverage and mitigate rate pressures amid uncertain demand trends.

These moves reflect a broader realignment: ASEAN has overtaken the EU as China’s largest trade partner for the first time, driving urgency in route development across the region. For Oceania exporters and importers, the expanded connectivity could offer more flexible routing, improved transit reliability, and backup capacity, especially when transpacific corridors remain under volatility.

Bangladesh shippers are frustrated

Carriers are raising shipping costs on imports and exports after Chittagong Port Authority impose a 70% tariff on service charges to recoup the increased costs for port services. This angered shippers and is contributing to ongoing supply chain challenges. This development follows severe congestion at the Chittagong port, where import containers have been piling up, and ships have been waiting to dock. The increase in port costs adds to existing supply chain issues, which have also included rail strikes and disruptions from other transport operators.

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AMERICAS

The US and China have launched a trade war tax on the global shipping industry

Each country is charging high, retaliatory fees on the other’s connected ships that dock at their ports. Recently, a German-owned, US-flagged container ship was hit with a $1.7 million fee just to dock in Shanghai. Experts warn that these escalating fees, which target any ship with significant US ownership or board presence, will cause major chaos, increase costs, and force shipping routes to change.

Panama Canal Faces Competition from China’s Strategic Railway Amid US Tensions

The Panama Canal Authority is considering owning two key ports (on the Atlantic and Pacific coasts) to be operated by a third party, possibly spurred by the US-China trade friction and allegations that China controls the waterway. The canal is currently seeing massive profits due to US tariffs affecting shipping volumes. In a move to bypass potential US restrictions and strengthen its global influence, China is exploring an alternative route known as the Central Bi-Oceanic Railway Corridor (CBRC). This proposed railway would connect the Atlantic and Pacific oceans via Brazil, Bolivia, and Peru. While the current Panama Canal route remains the most cost-effective, the CBRC is a strategic project that underscores Latin America’s increasing importance as a battleground for global economic and political supremacy.

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EUROPE

Strikes in Antwerp and Rotterdam ports have been temporarily suspended

The damage to the flow of goods, however, is severe. In Antwerp, while a main union has paused its action, over a hundred ships are still stuck waiting to enter or leave, and officials say it will take “several days” for the situation to even begin clearing up. In Rotterdam, a court order suspended the strike until Friday 17 for negotiations, but the port’s backlog of cargo is so extreme that it is expected to cause shipping delays that could last all the way until the end of November.

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GLOBAL

The coming overcapacity to peak in 2027

The global container shipping industry is about to face a major problem with too many ships and not enough cargo, a situation known as overcapacity, which is predicted to peak in 2027. This influx of new vessels will create a glut of space and is expected to drive down shipping rates to levels last seen during the severe price wars of 2016. This forecast depends on factors like the eventual resolution of crises such as the Red Sea conflict, which currently keeps some ships busy on longer routes, and the retirement of older vessels, but overall, the market is structurally shifting from a period of high demand to a significant surplus of capacity.

Global Carriers Hold Off on Passing U.S. Port Fees to Shippers

Most major ocean carriers—including Maersk, CMA CGM, ONE, and HMM—have confirmed they will not pass on new U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) port fees to customers, at least in the near term. These fees, which took effect mid-October, target vessels that are Chinese-owned, operated, or constructed when calling at U.S. ports. Lines are managing exposure through vessel redeployment and internal cost absorption rather than direct surcharges, aiming to preserve rate stability amid weak global demand.

However, uncertainty remains around how the USTR will enforce and collect these fees, as well as which ships ultimately qualify. COSCO and other Chinese carriers face higher risk due to fleet composition, while some operators are restructuring ownership to sidestep the “Chinese-built” designation. For now, shippers should expect minimal short-term impact, but analysts warn that if the policy expands or costs escalate in 2026, carriers may eventually pass on the burden through higher freight rates or route adjustments.

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